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          果敢龙源娱乐

          2018-08-18 14:37:54 来源:百度宝宝知道

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            原标题:对冲美国封杀伊朗影响 欧盟除“抵御”还需要什么

            

            原标题:对冲影响,欧盟除了“抵御”还需要什么?

            8月6日,美国宣布从7日起重新启动对伊朗金融、金属、矿产、汽车、工业等领域制裁,全面限制伊朗获取工业物资和国际融资的渠道,标志着美国退出伊核协议的进程已迈出重要一步。而除了直接制裁,更厉害的是强迫其他国家及企业参与美国的“二级制裁”。特朗普同时在推特上强调称,任何跟伊朗做生意的企业都将被禁止与美国做生意。

            美国单方面撕毁伊核协议并启动制裁的做法引发欧盟强烈不满和担忧。8月7日,欧盟外交与安全事务高级代表莫盖里尼,与伊核协议的欧洲三大国英、法和德外长共同发表了联合声明,强调了伊核协议为维护地区稳定发挥的重要意义,表示欧盟将维护其企业在伊经济利益,保障伊核协议的维系与实施。此举显示了美国和欧盟在对伊政策上巨大的利益分歧。

            实际上,伊核协议切实关系到了欧盟的经济和安全利益。从经济上来说,拓展同伊朗的经贸关系,一方面是扩大欧盟对伊朗的出口和投资,打入这个8000万人口的大市场;另一方面则是拓展能源供应渠道,在当前国际油价回弹上行,欧洲与传统能源合作伙伴俄罗斯的关系长期处于冰点的情况下,拓展同伊朗的油气合作无疑将有助于分散能源风险。

            伊核协议签署后大幅拓展了欧盟在伊朗的经济利益,欧盟与伊朗贸易额从2015年的78亿欧元猛增至2017的209亿欧元,其中欧盟对伊朗出口在两年间增长43亿欧元,2016年欧盟对伊朗投资存量达到42亿欧元,从伊朗油气进口也大幅增加。

            在安全上看,欧盟将扩大同伊朗的贸易投资往来作为促使伊朗遵守伊核协议的经济杠杆,同时希望伊朗保持稳定及对外政策克制,避免给中东乱局带来新的不稳定因素,减少中东给欧洲带来的难民压力和安全隐患。

            经济和安全目标对于欧盟对伊政策而言,是相互促进,环环相扣的关系,美国的单方面制裁,势必将破坏平衡,触及欧盟的核心利益。

            欧盟此次修改了订立于1996年的“抵御法”(blocking statute),以帮助欧盟企业对冲美国二级制裁的影响。

            首先,欧盟在“抵御法”文件中提出,欧盟与伊朗就能源开发、油气采购、制造业、芯片、贵金属等产业的交易、投资及融资均属于正常的商业往来,美国单边制裁对于上述合作的干扰和破坏,以及对于从事相关合作的企业和个人加以惩罚和报复,属于“损害欧盟利益”,为欧盟企业鼓劲打气。

            其次,欧盟提出欧企与伊朗开展业务往来应遵从欧盟法律而非美国法律,对于因美国“二级制裁”措施招致美报复而受到损失的企业,欧洲法院将对此进行判决,认定无违法行为的将由欧盟加以赔偿。

            其三,欧盟在探索以欧元支付为伊朗拓展金融渠道。美国对伊制裁影响最大的一项即是金融制裁,将伊朗排除于美元结算体系之外,难以支付贸易与投资款项。而欧盟则试图探索以欧元结算帮助伊朗获取外汇及完成国际贸易与投资。德国智库“科学与政治基金会”曾在2018年6月发布研究文章,提出欧洲应由欧洲投资银行或新成立特别为欧伊经贸活动融资的商业银行,保障欧伊贸易与投资的顺利进行,而这些银行将尽量避免与美元和美国相关的业务,以回避“排除在美国市场外”的风险,同时建议欧盟从预算中出资为欧企与伊朗的交易提供融资资金。目前,欧盟也正在考虑从预算中划拨资金建立融资渠道,以帮助伊朗摆脱美元体系的掣肘。

            欧盟的“抵御法”和莫盖里尼的表态显示,欧盟对于欧伊经贸关系和伊核协议有效性的力挺,同时也是同中、俄一道,树立伊朗对于整个国际社会的信心,并且侧面鼓励自身企业坚持与伊朗开展合作的意愿,这对维护伊核协议的作用有一定的正面意义,明显体现在伊朗总统鲁哈尼与欧洲政要沟通磋商的频率与表态上。然而,鉴于美国对于世界经济及欧洲企业的巨大影响力,欧盟的对冲措施恐怕收效甚微。

            首先,美国的二级制裁措施将逼迫欧洲跨国企业在美国和伊朗两个市场中作出非此即彼的选择。而对于欧洲的汽车、航空、金融企业而言,美国的市场远比伊朗庞大。比如宝马2017年在美国销售30.5万辆汽车,整体销售额甚至高于2017德国对伊朗的贸易总量。

            其次,欧洲跨国企业被美国扣住金融命脉。当前跨国企业全球的交易往来,其设备、零件、以及成品的买卖大多需要通过美元流通体系和美元计价结算,直接以欧元交易的国际贸易比重远低于美元,同时正常经营活动也需要在全球的资本市场特别是美国借贷和融资,欧元在国际市场的借贷成本和便利性仍逊于美元。而欧洲大企业冒险与伊朗交易,则不排除有被美国禁止进入美国交易市场以及使用美元结算体系的可能性,金融机构也有可能因担心“受牵连”而拒绝为这些企业服务。

            其三,欧洲跨国企业对美国的惩罚大棒心存余悸。美国财政部下属的外国资产办公室有权对外国企业实体在美资产进行冻结和没收,并且不定期更新其监控清单,为美国的经济制裁措施服务。而特朗普已经放话准备对不合作的外国企业实施在美资产冻结。此外,欧洲企业以前曾多次因违背美国金融制裁政策而收到巨额罚单。法国巴黎银行2014年即因“与伊朗等国非法交易”而被美国司法部处以89亿美元的高额罚单,时任法国总统奥朗德与美直接沟通亦不能帮助巴黎银行免于处罚。而在特朗普的惩罚威慑下,欧洲的金融机构恐更不愿开展对伊业务。

            目前,特朗普的威胁大棒已然影响了欧盟和伊朗的经贸关系。空客、宝马、道达尔等欧盟大企业均表示要缩减与伊朗业务或叫停已经立项的投资计划,而航空、汽车及能源等领域的大企业进行投资和贸易,是改善伊朗经济状况的主力,却也是最惧怕美国“二级制裁”的。

            德国2018年1-5月与伊朗的贸易额同比下降4%,而2017年德国对伊朗贸易额则增长16%。随着美国11月启动限制外国企业和实体购买伊朗油气的措施,欧盟对伊朗的贸易恐怕将面临进一步的萎缩。同时,伊朗方面也表示,若美国阻止伊朗石油出口,则伊朗不排除封锁波斯湾的可能性,而这些地缘政治动荡最终将转化为推高油价的动能,欧盟作为油气净消费国将负担更多能源成本。

            因此,欧盟虽然有意维护自身在伊核协议中的利益,但却力有不逮,企业在经济逻辑的驱动下只能回避伊朗相关的经营风险。仅凭欧盟一家之力似乎很难巩固伊核协议的落实,比“抵御法”更重要的则是国际合作。中国和欧盟在第二十届中欧领导人峰会共同声明中提出,中欧双方就维护伊核协议的合作作出承诺。俄罗斯、土耳其等国也表示要继续与伊朗开展合作,欧盟若希望切实保护自身企业经济利益,则应该同其他国家一道,在融资渠道、投资合作、经贸便利化等领域探索合作潜力,为支持伊朗的经贸正常化努力。

            (澎湃新闻特约撰稿 董一凡 作者系中国现代国际关系研究院欧洲研究所助理研究员)

          责任编辑:张玉

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